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Furlong Ledger

Methodology

What the service does, and how its record is kept.

The rules that pick a horse are private. Everything they produce is public. This page explains the second half in the language you would use at the races.

The service in four lines

  • Selection. Selections are generated by Furlong Ledger's proprietary rules. The rules are not published; what they produce is.
  • Timing. Around the scheduled off, at the price available then. If the price has gone, there is no bet and the race is recorded as passed.
  • Stake. Fixed stake: 1u on every bet, whatever the price, from a bankroll of 200 units.
  • Where. The signals are made for the Betfair exchange: the price in a signal is an exchange price, and you place the bet on your own account.

How a position reaches the record

  1. Monitor. Qualifying races are watched automatically. No list is drawn up by hand.
  2. Execute. A position is taken at the price available in the last minute before the off. If the price has gone, there is no position and the race is recorded as passed.
  3. Settle. The result comes from Betfair. Commission is charged once per race, on the race’s net winnings.
  4. Publish. Every position reaches the record, losers as well as winners.

How a result is calculated

A winning bet makes a gross profit equal to its stake multiplied by the decimal odds minus one. A losing bet loses its stake. Results from bets in the same race are added together, then 2% commission is deducted from any positive net winnings for that race. A session's result is the sum of its races; the overall result is the sum of its sessions.

We recommend a starting bankroll of 200 units. One unit is your starting bankroll divided by 200, and every bet is one unit. For example, with a €2,000 bankroll, 1u is €10 and every bet is €10, whatever the price. Results are expressed in units so they can be compared across different bankroll sizes.

The numbers, and what each one is for

  • Net result is gross winnings minus losing stakes minus commission, over the stated period.
  • ROI, return on investment, is the net result divided by everything staked. It is the return for every unit risked.
  • Strike rate is how often positions won. On its own it says little at these prices, so it is always shown next to how often the prices said they should win. Above that line is where a result from backing horses comes from.
  • Largest drawdown is the deepest fall from a high point in the running result before it recovered. It tells you what a bad spell looked like, in units and in stakes.

No result on this site appears without its period and its number of positions.

What is deliberately not published

The entry logic, the filters and the conditions. Publishing them would hand over the rules, and it would also invite people to second-guess a rule instead of judging its record. What is published is every race, every price and every settlement, which is enough to check every number on this site.

How the record was built

The rules were fixed on 9 September 2026. The record starts earlier, on 1 August 2026: the days before 10 September 2026 are the rules applied to the recorded market, and from that date the signals went out as the races happened. Every day is measured the same way, at the recorded price one second after the rules' signal.

What cannot move

A published session is fixed. The date, the race, the runner, the price it was backed at and whether it won do not change. If a figure is ever corrected, the correction is published with what changed and why. There have been 61 sessions so far, and none has been altered.

What this is not

Not advice, not a recommendation to bet, and not a forecast. Past results do not indicate future results. Furlong Ledger takes no bets and holds no money.